Is the Canadian Housing Market Ready to BUST?

The million dollar question will not be answered in this post; rather, we will discuss an interesting observation of where we are in the cycle. The chart below shows the relationship of the Canadian house price index with an overlay of long term interest rates in the U.S. (30 year U.S. Bond yields). There are many who can still tell stories of 18% mortgage rates on their first home purchase. Consider for a moment the current posted rate on ratehub.ca is 2.47% for a five year fixed rate. If you want to take a bit more risk you are looking at variable rates of 1.99%. This is a big change.

 


Source: VIP Wealth Solution, Bloomberg

 

History has shown us that there are moments of disruption, 2008/2009 for example. There may also be periods of consolidation as notable from 1990 to 2000.

 

The answer to the question is that both of these are possibilities and to some extent are probable. However, we cannot tell you when.