Nearly 70 years ago, some people still recall the picture of a smiling Harry Truman holding up the Chicago Daily Tribune which said on the front page “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Of course, Truman was grinning because he, in contrast to what the Tribune said, had won. Prior to the election, he had faced years of opposition from his own party and polls were showing he would be a clear loser in the election. This would never happen today in the world of instant information. Come to think of it what is a newspaper anyway? :)
Source: The Chicago Tribune
But what happened in the markets after that? The DOW as illustrated below went down. BUT after a pretty hard sell off into the middle of 1949, it went back up. Markets do this all the time.
Source: VIP Wealth Solutions and Bloomberg
That’s why they are called markets because prices change. The move was about 15% over a year. We could go on and talk about the other close races in history and how they may predict the future of the market, but it would be just that – a prediction.
Can anyone predict the future – NO! Nicely enough we can manage change and the world is constantly changing. SO as we watch the outcomes of this week’s presidential race we will act accordingly and continue to own reasonable assets in the current economic times.
Just in case there is a surprise this week, remember it will not be the first one.
Enjoy the election.