Market Cycle Update - Encouraging Signs

The majority of the news and signals from our Market Cycle indicators have improved over the past few months.  This provides additional support that the current bull market has legs.  Of note is a significant improvement for indicators following the global economy.  A few months back these were largely negative but are now about 50/50.  This bodes well for global cyclicals, a natural benefit for the TSX.  U.S. economic indicators have softened but remain in the positive camp. 

 

Based on the weighted evidence from our Market Trender, Rates, Fundamentals U.S Economic and Global Economic indicators, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of the Late Bull phase of the market cycle.  The good news is we remain in a bull market.  The bad news is this looks like the last phase of the cycle.  However, given the last recession was a credit driven one, which flattened the recovery trajectory due to deleveraging, we believe this to be an elongated cycle.  So we are not ringing any alarm bells yet.  

 

We remain overweight equities at the expense of bonds.  To read our indepth report on all our signals and current tactical asset allocation tilts Click HERE