Hilliard’s Weekend Notebook


Thoughts, views and opinions as current events unfold: With topics taken from current market events and my latest book — When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash (Dundurn: March 2015)  and my first book Investment Traps and How to Avoid Them (1999) — this short piece will give you unique and valuable insights filtered by my thirty-six years’ experience as an investment professional.


 

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The Bank of Canada says the housing correction is over

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jul 12, 2019

The Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report was released this week, along with the announcement that the Bank interest rate would remain at 1.75 percent. As happened in the U.S. and with other central banks, the Bank of Canada hinted that rates will be... Continue reading
Iran is desperate and dangerous

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jul 05, 2019

Iran and the United States are escalating their hostilities, with recent attacks on commercial tankers by Iran and a U.S. air strike canceled at the last minute by the U.S. Although President Trump ran for election on a policy of opposing any U.S. military... Continue reading
A U.S. recession predicted

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jun 28, 2019

A highly regarded forecaster, who has an excellent track record going back to the 1960s, claims that a recession may have already started in the U.S. There is ample corroborating evidence of a slowdown, as the Federal Reserve abruptly shifted their policy... Continue reading
The Fed hints at rate cuts

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jun 21, 2019

On Wednesday June 19, 2019, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank announced its decision to hold policy interest rates steady at 2.25% to 2.50%. Market participants are watching the Fed closely to see if rate cuts are... Continue reading
Two hundred years of financial crises

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jun 14, 2019

A new book, called “A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises” by Richard Vague, covers the causes of financial crises. Consistent with my recent book, “When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash”, Vague finds... Continue reading
Toronto is the epicenter of the housing bubble in Canada

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jun 07, 2019

This week I visited Toronto, did several interviews and gave a keynote address. The topic was housing bubbles, debt and Canadian banking. So far, the Toronto housing market remains more resilient than in Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver although there... Continue reading
China threatens the U.S. again...

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on May 31, 2019

China escalated the trade war by using language in a warning that’s only been used twice previously. The latest threat involves withholding the sale of components known as “rare earth elements”. These metals are used in many applications and China is... Continue reading
Key risks to the Canadian financial system redux

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on May 24, 2019

The Bank of Canada (BOC) released its Financial System Review on May 16, 2019. This periodic review includes the BOC’s assessment of the key risks, or vulnerabilities, to the Canadian economy and the financial system. One of the central bank’s main responsibilities... Continue reading
China might not back down

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on May 17, 2019

The U.S. trade war with China escalated last week, as a deadline imposed by the U.S. administration passed, without any agreement. The U.S. placed additional tariffs on imports of goods from China that take effect on June 1. The outlook for an agreement... Continue reading
The Bank of Canada says housing markets are frothy

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on May 10, 2019

The Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz spoke on May 6, 2019 to the Chamber of Commerce in Winnipeg. He gave some detailed comments about housing markets in Canada. He called the housing market “frothy”, continuing the tradition of refusing to... Continue reading