Hilliard’s Weekend Notebook

Thoughts, views and opinions as current events unfold: With topics taken from current market events and my latest book — When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash (Dundurn: March 2015)  and my first book Investment Traps and How to Avoid Them (1999) — this short piece will give you unique and valuable insights filtered by my thirty-six years’ experience as an investment professional.


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Canadian banks still face headwinds

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Dec 06, 2019

Canadian banks face stiff headwinds next year. They will have to deal with increasing loan losses, weak capital markets and slow retail lending. This is the start of a period of elevated risk, as the credit cycle turns. Should investors reconsider their... Continue reading
President Trump has a chance of winning

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Nov 29, 2019

President Trump’s reelection chances in November 2020 are better than some people think. The incumbent president usually wins when going for a second term, if the economy is in good shape. Will Donald Trump win a second term in 2020? There are several... Continue reading
Guest post: Bond prices are at a peak

Published by Fraser Betkowski on Nov 22, 2019

The standard safe-haven investment in a portfolio has always been fixed income or bonds. While not known for producing larger capital gains, bonds are useful as a store of value and generators of income. However, recent trends in North American bond markets... Continue reading
Saudi Aramco is a gamble on oil demand

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Nov 15, 2019

The world’s largest company, Saudi Aramco, is proposing to list its shares on the stock exchange in Saudi Arabia. The prospectus issued last weekend, at 658 pages, includes a lot of interesting information about the oil business, the company’s size and... Continue reading
Too much cash can be a good thing

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Nov 08, 2019

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is invested in a lot of cash and cash equivalents, about $122 billion in August 2019. Most investment managers cannot afford to wait to invest in stocks when the market is rising, as missing out on gains upsets investors... Continue reading
IMF warns of slower growth

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Nov 01, 2019

The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for world economic growth for the fifth straight time this week. The IMF sees growth slowing as global trade tensions escalate and business investment is weak. The words “synchronized slowdown” and “precarious... Continue reading
Canada suffers from Dutch disease

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 25, 2019

Canada, like some wealthy countries that receive substantial resource income, suffers from “Dutch disease”, according to some analysts. That label is used to describe a country that enjoys the income from selling natural resources but is hurt by the side... Continue reading
Technology disrupts autos

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 18, 2019

The automobile industry is vulnerable to the advent of new technology. Electric-drive technology will force a revolution in the manufacturing and sale of automobiles. The incumbent car makers, auto dealers and those who finance the purchase of cars may... Continue reading
Value investing is only for very patient investors

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 11, 2019

Investment strategies get divided into two camps, growth and value. Most successful investors like Warren Buffet believe that value investing is better than growth investing. However, in the last decade, value investing has performed abysmally compared... Continue reading
Trump supporter jumps ship

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 04, 2019

A high-profile former supporter of President Donald Trump, Anthony Scaramucci, spoke at a conference in New York that I attended. Scaramucci is famous for getting fired after an 11-day stint as communications advisor in the Trump White House. He has some... Continue reading