Hilliard’s Weekend Notebook

Thoughts, views and opinions as current events unfold: With topics taken from current market events and my latest book — When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash (Dundurn: March 2015)  and my first book Investment Traps and How to Avoid Them (1999) — this short piece will give you unique and valuable insights filtered by my thirty-six years’ experience as an investment professional.


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Key risks to the Canadian financial system redux

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on May 24, 2019

The Bank of Canada (BOC) released its Financial System Review on May 16, 2019. This periodic review includes the BOC’s assessment of the key risks, or vulnerabilities, to the Canadian economy and the financial system. One of the central bank’s main responsibilities... Continue reading
China might not back down

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on May 17, 2019

The U.S. trade war with China escalated last week, as a deadline imposed by the U.S. administration passed, without any agreement. The U.S. placed additional tariffs on imports of goods from China that take effect on June 1. The outlook for an agreement... Continue reading
The Bank of Canada says housing markets are frothy

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on May 10, 2019

The Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz spoke on May 6, 2019 to the Chamber of Commerce in Winnipeg. He gave some detailed comments about housing markets in Canada. He called the housing market “frothy”, continuing the tradition of refusing to... Continue reading
Deficits don't matter

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on May 03, 2019

Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, is the hot topic today. MMT has pushed its way to the front of the discussion on the economy and likely will be debated during the Presidential election next year. At least one well-known money professional, Ray Dalio of... Continue reading
Vancouver housing conference

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Apr 26, 2019

Attendees enjoyed an excellent conference on the state of the housing market in Vancouver, organized by Ben Rabidoux of North Cove Advisers. About 100 people, including some from California and New York, listened to experts on the state of housing now... Continue reading
The money illusion and housing corrections

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Apr 18, 2019

A quirk from the field of economics, called the ”money illusion,” will play a big role in the housing market correction now underway in Canada. This correction, which I predict will become a crash, will be very different from the large correction in the... Continue reading
Surviving the Canadian real estate crash

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Apr 12, 2019

The great Canadian housing correction is well underway. Reports of declines of greater than 20 percent in single family home prices in Toronto and Vancouver are widespread, especially in the more expensive segment of the market. Large supplies of new... Continue reading
The baby boomer retirement crisis

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Apr 05, 2019

Powerful demographic trends will impact investment markets starting very soon. The demographics behind these trends have been in place since 1946, but their potential for disruption is often ignored while more short-term factors are studied. How will... Continue reading
Elon Musk keeps rolling the dice with Tesla

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Mar 29, 2019

Tesla announced a new, all-electric model, called the Model Y, appealing to the light truck/crossover/SUV segment, the largest component of auto sales. The Model Y shares the same platform as Tesla’s best-selling sedan, the Model 3. There are many skeptics... Continue reading
Hard Brexit on the horizon

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Mar 22, 2019

Prime Minister Theresa May faces her biggest challenge as leader next week as MPs are to vote again, for the third time, on the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) negotiated with the EU. The EU granted a brief extension to the March 29 deadline but imposed a condition... Continue reading