Hilliard’s Weekend Notebook

Thoughts, views and opinions as current events unfold: With topics taken from current market events and my latest book — When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash (Dundurn: March 2015)  and my first book Investment Traps and How to Avoid Them (1999) — this short piece will give you unique and valuable insights filtered by my thirty-six years’ experience as an investment professional.


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Leave the Canadian housing correction alone

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Mar 15, 2019

Canadian lending institutions have provided credit under a relaxed set of rules that resulted in Canadian households being recognized by agencies such as the Bank for International Settlements as among the most indebted in the world. Changes in regulatory... Continue reading
The Bank of Canada gets cold feet

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Mar 08, 2019

The Bank of Canada (BOC) announced that interest rates would remain unchanged, continuing its stance in January 2019. The media release emphasized the economic slowdown, both in Canada and globally. It appears the BOC is changing to a “glass half-empty”... Continue reading
Hidden risks of ETF investing

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Mar 04, 2019

Index investing, or passive investing, is taking over from the human portfolio manager, also known as active management. This trend is gaining momentum and will not reverse until the next bear market. Individuals now expect above-average returns with... Continue reading
The Fed is afraid of causing a recession

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Feb 22, 2019

Since 2008 no central bank has been able to increase interest rates by more than 2 percent without taking a break. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of their January 29-30 meeting that reveal an abrupt change of direction, as they state that more... Continue reading
Australian financial crisis

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Feb 15, 2019

Australia avoided the worst of the 2009 worldwide financial crisis by pumping up the residential real estate industry. House prices rose, household debt levels soared, and the economy did very well. Is Australia on the brink of its first recession since... Continue reading
Guest post – The January Effect – Myth or Maxim?

Published by Jonathan MacLeod on Feb 08, 2019

In deciding what to write about this week there were several topics that came to mind.  Interest rates, valuations, and slowing growth are all important dynamics that are shifting and affecting market.  But I thought it would be fun to cover something... Continue reading
China could use autos to boost slowing GDP

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Feb 01, 2019

China is the most important emerging market economy. December data show a slowdown in growth there, sending a chill through world stock markets. One of the key sectors in China is the auto sector, as dozens of domestic companies compete in manufacturing... Continue reading
Guest post - The S&P/TSX in 2019: don't bet on it

Published by Fraser Betkowski on Jan 25, 2019

January brings analyst predictions of where stock market indices will end that year. For 2019, the calls from analysts for the trajectory of the S&P/TSX, Canada’s main exchange, have mostly been positive. This comes after the index experienced a 12% drop... Continue reading
China offers big potential returns with even bigger risks

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jan 18, 2019

Some of China’s stock market indices showed some of the worst performance in the world over the last year. The Shanghai market fell 24 percent while the Shenzhen market plummeted 32 percent. Trade uncertainty, slowing economic growth in China and a crackdown... Continue reading
The BOC goes on pause for now

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jan 11, 2019

The Bank of Canada released its Monetary Policy Report this week along with an announcement that the Bank of Canada target rate would remain unchanged. But in the media release Governor Stephen Poloz insisted that rates are too low and further hikes will... Continue reading